Turkey’s local elections — and whoever wins Istanbul — could dictate future

As the sunsets, a ferry boat glides across the waters of the Golden Horn with the Suleymaniye Mosque and the city of Istanbul, Turkey in the background. 

Vw Pics | Universal Images Group | Getty Images

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan once said that whoever wins Istanbul wins Turkey. If that’s the case, the stakes are high for Sunday’s elections as people across the country of 85 million prepare to select their local leaders and administrators.

Such is the importance of this weekend’s vote that political analysts are speculating that a victory for Istanbul’s incumbent mayor, the center-left Ekrem Imamoglu, would make him a frontrunner for the Turkish presidency in 2028.

That is the last thing Erdogan wants, having already seen his conservative, Islamist-sympathizing Justice and Development Party, abbreviated in Turkey as AK Party or AKP, trounced by Imamoglu and the more secular, moderate Republican People’s Party’s (CHP) in the city’s elections in 2019. So incensed was Erdogan by the election result that he called a second election, only to see Imamoglu beat the AK Party’s mayoral candidate by a yet wider margin.

A win for the opposition on Sunday could set the country in a new direction, presenting a major challenge to Erdogan and the AK Party’s decades-long hold on power. Erdogan himself rose to prominence as Istanbul mayor in the 1990s before later going on to win the presidency. Now he is pushing hard for his party’s mayoral candidate Murat Kurum, a 47-year-old former environment and urbanization minister.

“Istanbul stands out as a very important point of political battle,” Arda Tunca, an Istanbul-based economist at PolitikYol, told CNBC. The city is home to 16 million people, making it more populous than 20 of the 27 countries in the European Union.

And Turkey, as the second-largest military in NATO and a major economic and political crossroads between east and west, has elevated itself as a global player in recent years, playing prominent mediating roles in conflicts like the Ukraine-Russia war and brokering major investment and trade deals with wealthy Gulf Arab states.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy shakes hands with his Turkish counterpart Tayyip Erdogan during a press conference in Istanbul, Turkey, March 8, 2024. 

Umit Bektas | Reuters

“A lot of countries in the world are governed by cabinets of ministers, but Istanbul — bigger than many of those countries — is governed by a mayor. This is odd but also shows how important it is to win Istanbul,” Tunca said.

Major Turkish cities like Istanbul and the capital Ankara will be key races to watch. Both were won by the opposition in 2019.

“Turkish municipal elections are frequently a political barometer ahead of the presidential and parliamentary elections which are scheduled to take place in 2028,” said Kristin Ronzi, a Middle East and North Africa analyst at risk consultancy RANE.

“Although candidates’ platforms for the municipal elections reflect local issues that impact the…

Read More: Turkey’s local elections — and whoever wins Istanbul — could dictate future

Leave a comment

This website uses cookies to improve your experience. We'll assume you're ok with this, but you can opt-out if you wish. Accept Read More

Get more stuff like this
in your inbox

Subscribe to our mailing list and get interesting stuff and updates to your email inbox.

Thank you for subscribing.

Something went wrong.